sundance-communications.com/forum Forums General General Telephone & Systems Information What would happen if?

Apologies if this is the wrong forum for this question.

There's been a lot of hubbub lately about how people are dropping their landline service and just using their cell phone, as another way to trim their budget. I don't know if this is right, but a friend of mine called and said he heard on NPR that Qwest either has or is projected to lose 90% of it's local business. (I don't know if I'm typing his interpretation of what was acually said, or what, so don't hold me to that).

What happens if enough customers disconnect their service to cause a local provider to go bankrupt? Normally I'd say that would never happen as someone would aquire them long before that (i.e. Embarq) - but who wants to buy a company, or branch of a company, that's lost/losing most of it's subscribers?

I'm just wondering, for purposes of discussion, if a local provider "goes away", what circuit breakers are in place to make sure the remaining subscribers continue to get service?

Thanks
Matt

Likely something like the bank buyout would happen. The company would have to search for someone to buy that division/local and if they could not then the government could step in to broker a deal...these are basic companies that will not go under. Kind of like Enron or other companies, while they may go under the product and customers will be taken care of.

Of course it is totally another matter when we are talking about small providers or SIP trunking providers.

Steve

Qwest has such a hudge rural presents that most of the big boys wouldn't want them. As far as land based phones go, yes I think that's probably correct, that's one reason they are now pushing dry DSL.

I'm in a town with a small college, some years ago they (Qwest) would bring in extra techs for the fall rush, now hardly any of the college bound order land lines.

I think the 90% thing is high. Here\'s an article from August about market share.

This is a great topic of discussion as far as I’m concerned Matt!

“Cellular replacement” has been a topic of discussion for some years on this side of the demarc. Individuals abandoning their landlines in favor of cell phones only, has been and will continue to have, a negative effect on Telco’s bottom line. It’s been a pain and as projections look it will continue to get more painful. Will “cellular replacement” of POTS services drive us (the LEC’s) out of business, nope sure won’t. Will it put some in bankruptcy “maybe” but probably not if the ones “driving the bus” of the particular companies are paying attention to good business practices.

Phone companies have been and will continue to look for other money makers to continue to be required and hopefully profitable. Broadband for one is in some aspects taking over as the “bread and butter” service. Most Telco’s are also in are starting to get in to providing television content. … And of course don’t forget the business class services will always continue to be needed and hopefully be profitable.

Last couple things to consider before writing off LEC’s as going to obsolete… Cell towers need to be connected via Telco’s (T1’s or DS3’s –n-such) to the PSTN (public switched telephone network.) Also consider that the PSTN is made up of equipment such as switches, routers and the like that are property of the Telco’s. Telco’s ain’t going no where… 20 years from now we may not recognize what they have evolved in to but we (or they) won’t go away. … Hum, makes me think, “I need to get out of this business” sometimes though.
:db:

Hey Matt I did want to mention that neither Embarq nor CenturyTel were really in finical “trouble.” That wasn’t the cause or need for the merger. That is more a long term strategy thing in the hopes to be able to stay competitive (i.e. lean enough) to continue the evolution.

Let's not forget that in most cases, telcos actually lose money for individual residential POTS accounts due to high maintenance costs. They make their "real" money selling hi-cap circuits, like T1 and above. Not only are they much lower maintenance, but many of them are sold to CLECs. They love this since the CLECs have to deal with all of the end-user BS, billing, complaints, etc. The telco provides the circuit and walks away. Even though they are selling these circuits at a much lower rate, their net profit is actually higher due to reduced overhead expenses.

A close friend of mine who works for Verizon told me about ten years ago that Verizon's focus was to steer toward transport services and away from POTS. He wasn't too far off the mark.

A customer of mine just told me that Qwest just started to charge him a penny for each call under 6 seconds.. For a call center, this was a huge change in their charges.

My son (28) got his own place and didn't get a land line. No interest in it. Why bother? He got Cable TV and Internet from Cablevision and he could have had the phone service for $5.00 a month. He said no. He thought it would be more of a bother then anything else.

Sam

My neighbor across the street has done away with his land line. I had to give him a key to my digs so he could send his faxes without bothering me.

He also has a security system and pays for monitoring monthly. What he doesn't know is now that he has no land line I'm the only one doing the monitoring.

He don't need no land line, he has me across the street.

I've entertained the thought of doing away with my land line for, maybe, 5 seconds tops.

I've had 2 cell phones ruined by water (one was an accidental spin in the washing machine and the other was drowned in a downpour that soaked right through my back pack).

Make no mistake about it, relying 100% on a cell phone is risky. If the unit is damaged or lost, you'll be out of reach until you aquire a new one and I really can't see myself bothering the neighbors to use their telephone.